September Jobs Report Shows Mixed Signals with Strong Headline Gain, Rising Unemployment

The U.S. labor market exhibited resilience but also signs of strain in September, according to a long-awaited report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday. The data, delayed by a 44-day government shutdown, provided a snapshot of economic conditions from two months ago.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 for the month, substantially higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 50,000. However, the August figure was revised down to show a loss of 4,000 jobs, and the July total was also adjusted lower. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level since October 2021.

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"The picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing," noted Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. "These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don't reflect where we stand now in November."

Market reaction was mixed. Stock futures extended gains on the stronger-than-expected headline payroll number, while Treasury yields edged lower, likely responding to the higher unemployment rate and a modest slowdown in wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.8% year-over-year.

The report, the last major jobs data before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, did little to shift expectations for monetary policy. Traders continued to bet the central bank will hold rates steady next month, a view reinforced by hawkish tones in the recently released October meeting minutes.

Sector performance was mixed. Healthcare led gains, adding 43,000 jobs, while bars and restaurants contributed 37,000. Declines were seen in transportation and warehousing (-25,000) and professional and business services (-20,000).

A separate household survey painted a more robust picture, showing a 251,000 increase in employment and a record labor force of 171.2 million. The participation rate rose to 62.4%, and full-time employment surged by 673,000.

The BLS announced it will release combined jobs data for October and November on December 16, though the October report will not include an unemployment rate due to survey disruptions caused by the shutdown.

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